{
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "published": "2026-07-24",
  "annual_import_account": {
    "year": 2024,
    "net_interstate_imports_mwh": 45349246,
    "total_supply_mwh": 148047861,
    "net_generation_mwh": 102698615,
    "import_share_percent": 30.6314766682,
    "source": "U.S. EIA Virginia Electricity Profile 2024, Table 10",
    "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/virginia/state_tables.php"
  },
  "current_indicator": {
    "period": "January-May 2026",
    "release_date": "2026-07-23",
    "virginia_retail_sales_mwh": 59952000,
    "virginia_utility_scale_generation_mwh": 41227000,
    "sales_minus_generation_mwh": 18725000,
    "same_period_2025_gap_mwh": 16174000,
    "gap_change_percent": 15.77222703,
    "classification": "derived preliminary indicator; not interstate imports",
    "sources": [
      "EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.4.B",
      "EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 1.3.B"
    ],
    "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/"
  },
  "territorial_emissions_comparison": {
    "scope": "Virginia electric power sector direct CO2 from fossil-fuel energy consumption",
    "2015_metric_tons": 31986000,
    "2024_metric_tons": 26285000,
    "decline_metric_tons": 5701000,
    "decline_percent": 17.823423998,
    "source": "U.S. EIA State Energy Data System, Table CO2.T6",
    "url": "https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/data.php?incfile=%2Fstate%2Fseds%2Fsep_co2%2Feu%2Fco2_eu_VA.html&sid=VA"
  },
  "accounting_bridge": {
    "2024_territorial_metric_tons": 26285000,
    "2024_imported_power_central_metric_tons": 14614736.7944,
    "2024_consumption_aware_sum_metric_tons": 40899736.7944,
    "import_sensitivity_as_multiple_of_2015_2024_territorial_decline": {
      "low": 2.171982888,
      "central": 2.563014523,
      "high": 2.95262829
    },
    "classification": "analytical comparison; not an official consumption inventory",
    "warning": "The territorial and imported-power estimates use different geographic methods. Their sum does not prove emissions were caused, contracted for, or physically relocated by Virginia."
  },
  "carbon_model": {
    "pollutant": "direct CO2",
    "central_lb_per_mwh": 710.485447729,
    "sensitivity_low_lb_per_mwh": 601.999082003,
    "sensitivity_high_lb_per_mwh": 818.321682471,
    "central_annual_metric_tons": 14614736.7944,
    "sensitivity_low_annual_metric_tons": 12383164.4435,
    "sensitivity_high_annual_metric_tons": 16832935.9041,
    "method": "2024 PJM hourly consumption emissions intensity calculated by EIA's multiregional input-output model. Central is total CO2 emissions consumed divided by total consumed electricity. Sensitivity endpoints are the unweighted 10th and 90th percentiles of valid hourly intensity observations.",
    "valid_hours": 8735,
    "possible_hours": 8784,
    "coverage_percent": 99.4421675774,
    "source": "U.S. EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor, PJM workbook",
    "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/knownissues/xls/PJM.xlsx"
  },
  "unit_conventions": {
    "hours_per_year": 8766,
    "pounds_per_metric_ton": 2204.6226218
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Virginia interstate imports are an annual net state balance, not an hourly or bilateral flow series.",
    "PJM consumption intensity is balancing-authority-wide, not Virginia-specific.",
    "The sensitivity interval describes hourly PJM variation; it is not a statistical confidence interval for Virginia imports.",
    "The carbon estimate covers direct power-sector CO2 only and excludes methane, nitrous oxide, lifecycle emissions, contracts, and renewable-energy certificates.",
    "The current-year clock spreads the latest audited annual import quantity uniformly across the calendar year.",
    "The 2026 sales-minus-generation indicator is not a state energy balance and must not be interpreted as net imports.",
    "The territorial-plus-imported accounting bridge is an analytical lens, not an official inventory or a causal attribution."
  ]
}