Virginia retail electricity salesJanuary–May 2026
59.952TWhElectricity sold to Virginia’s ultimate customers, preliminary. That is +2.9% from the same five months of 2025.
Virginia electricity, made visible
Imported power,
counted.
Virginia’s latest audited account shows 45.3 million MWh of net imports in 2024—30.6% of total supply. New preliminary state indicators now run through May 2026.
Model status: audited imports + May 2026 preliminary indicators
2024 average import loadBASELINE
5.2GW
flowing into Virginia, on average—enough energy to add 1.4 MWh every second.
Estimated imports since Jan. 1, 2026
Share of supply30.6%
Annual volume45.3M MWh
Newest state-level signal
Current through May 2026.
EIA release · July 23, 2026
Virginia utility-scale generationJanuary–May 2026
41.227TWhElectricity generated at utility-scale facilities in Virginia, preliminary. That is -2.0% from the same five months of 2025.
Sales minus utility-scale generationDerived indicator
18.725TWhThe simple gap is +15.8% versus the same period of 2025. It signals pressure on out-of-state supply, but it is not a measured interstate-flow total.
Current indicator—not current imports.
Retail sales and utility-scale generation come from different EIA surveys. Their difference omits or mismatches transmission and distribution losses, direct use, behind-the-meter generation, pumped-storage accounting, and survey timing. The audited 2024 state supply-and-disposition account remains the latest defensible net import measurement.
Verify in EIA’s Electric Power Monthly ↗The accounting question
Did Virginia cut emissions—or leave part of the ledger elsewhere?
EIA’s territorial series shows CO₂ from Virginia’s electric-power sector falling from 31.986 Mt in 2015 to 26.285 Mt in 2024: a 5.701 Mt, or 17.8%, decline. That is real progress within Virginia’s border.
But the central 2024 footprint assigned to net imported electricity is 14.615 Mt CO₂. Its 12.383–16.833 Mt sensitivity range is roughly 2.2–3.0 times the entire territorial decline. Looking only at in-state smokestacks therefore cannot answer Virginia’s electricity-consumption question.
Electric-power CO₂ accounting bridgeMillion metric tons
Observed2015 in-state
Observed2024 in-state
Territorial decline−5.701 Mt
Modeled2024 imported power
Sensitivity: 12.383–16.833 Mt CO₂
2024 consumption-aware lensterritorial + modeled imports
40.900 MtWhat this does—and does not—prove
This bridge combines two compatible direct-CO₂ concepts with different geographic methods. It is an analytical comparison, not an official consumption inventory. It does not prove Virginia caused, contracted for, or physically relocated every modeled ton; it shows why territorial emissions alone are incomplete when net imports are large.
Accuracy contract
What is known. What is inferred.
No single public dataset measures the hourly carbon content of electricity crossing Virginia’s border. This ledger never hides that gap: every displayed metric is classified below.
2024 net interstate imports
EIA’s reconciled annual state electricity account. Strong for the full-year net quantity; not directional, bilateral, or hourly.
Confidence · HighImport share and average load
Exact arithmetic from EIA imports and total supply, divided evenly across 365.25 days. The even hourly pace is a visualization assumption.
Confidence · High annuallyImported-power footprint
Imports multiplied by EIA’s 2024 PJM consumption-average intensity, calculated from 8,735 valid hourly observations using a multiregional flow model.
Confidence · Modeled rangeVCEA checkpoints
Statutory petition and retirement requirements—not a measurement of projects completed, capacity operating, or compliance status.
Confidence · High on textAssumption registerEffect on the result
Imports are a net annual balance
EIA reports imports after reconciling generation, sales, direct use, losses, and other disposition items.
Simultaneous imports and exports are netted out. The metric does not identify origin states, contracts, or individual power plants.
The clock assumes a constant pace
Annual MWh are spread uniformly from January 1 through December 31 using 365.25 days.
The counter is a projection, not an observation of current, hourly, seasonal, or peak imports.
PJM consumption intensity is the central proxy
EIA’s 2024 hourly MRIO model traces generation and interchange among balancing authorities. Its demand-weighted PJM average is 710.5 lb CO₂/MWh.
PJM is larger than Virginia. The model improves regional flow accounting but still cannot identify the timing or source plants of Virginia’s annual net imports.
The primary boundary is direct power-sector CO₂
The primary result uses EIA’s direct CO₂ estimate for electricity consumed within PJM.
Methane, nitrous oxide, upstream fuel extraction, construction, lifecycle emissions, contract attributes, and RECs are excluded. EIA’s flow model accounts for interchange, not contractual title.
The comparison uses two geographic boundaries
EIA SEDS counts fossil-fuel CO₂ released by Virginia electric-power facilities; the import model assigns a PJM consumption-average rate to Virginia’s net imports.
Adding them is a consumption-aware analytical lens, not an official inventory. It cannot prove that Virginia’s territorial reductions caused emissions elsewhere.
VCEA targets are not an import target
The law governs covered utilities and specified in-state resources and retirements.
A utility could satisfy a statutory milestone while Virginia remains a net importer; the two indicators must not be treated as the same score.
Carbon proxy
The power crosses a border.
The emissions don’t disappear.
Central annual estimate14.6million metric tons CO₂Using EIA’s demand-weighted 2024 PJM consumption average of 710.5 lb CO₂/MWh.
Estimated since Jan. 1—metric tons CO₂About 463 kilograms per second at the modeled rate.
Sensitivity, not false precision
12.4—16.8 million metric tons CO₂
Applying the 10th-to-90th percentile of EIA’s valid 2024 hourly PJM consumption intensities to Virginia’s annual imports produces this operational sensitivity range. It is not a statistical confidence interval because Virginia’s hourly import profile is not publicly observed.
P10602.0 lb/MWhCentral710.5 lb/MWhP90818.3 lb/MWh
Observed import history
One year is not a trend.
Virginia’s net imports ranged from 23.3 to 52.1 million MWh over the last ten published years. The 2024 value was 9.6% below 2023 but remained 21% above the ten-year average.
Test the assumptions
Move the inputs. See the stakes.
Interstate power is pooled across PJM, so no public dataset assigns every imported MWh to a specific generator. The honest answer is a range—here’s yours to explore.
Virginia Clean Economy Act
A clock needs a destination.
The VCEA sets utility clean-energy and retirement milestones. It does not set a cap on interstate imports, so import dependence and statutory compliance are related—but not the same score.
- 2024First retirement checkpoint
Covered utilities were directed to retire most in-state coal units and oil units over 500 MW, subject to listed exceptions and reliability relief.
- 2030Storage checkpoint
Current law calls for Phase II utilities to petition for 4,000 MW of short-duration storage by year-end.
- 2035Buildout checkpoint
Phase II utilities are directed to petition for 16,100 MW of solar or onshore wind and up to 5,200 MW of offshore wind.
- 2045Carbon-emitting retirement deadline
Remaining covered in-state generating units that emit carbon from fuel combustion are slated for retirement, with a reliability or security relief process.
Data-quality roadmap
From annual estimate to traceable grid ledger.
Improvements are ranked by how much they reduce uncertainty—not by how visually impressive they are.
- NowAudited annual baselinePublished
EIA state imports and supply, ten-year history, and full assumption and boundary disclosure.
- NextPreliminary current contextPublished
The newest Virginia retail-sales and utility-scale-generation releases are published side by side, with their gap explicitly separated from the audited import metric.
- ThenConsumption-based carbon rangePublished
EIA’s hourly multiregional input-output model now supplies a PJM consumption average and an empirical P10–P90 sensitivity range.
- Open gapVirginia state-border flow tracingNo public feed
Requires hourly gross tie-line flows mapped to Virginia’s physical border. Public PJM zones and balancing-authority data do not provide that state-border accounting.
- AccessHourly Dominion/PJM operational feedKey recommended
Add a production EIA API key for reliable polling and retain strict labels: Dominion-zone demand is not statewide demand, and PJM fuel mix is not Virginia’s import mix.
- TargetContract and compliance layerAccess dependent
Add utility PPAs, nuclear purchases, RECs, PJM-GATS attributes, SCC filings, and operating-project status where public.
Method & sources
Simple math. Visible caveats.
Import pace
45,349,246 MWh of 2024 net interstate imports divided across the year equals an average import load of 5.17 GW.
Carbon estimate
Imported MWh × the selected lb CO₂/MWh ÷ 2,204.62 gives metric tons. The central factor is EIA’s demand-weighted 2024 PJM consumption intensity; P10 and P90 show hourly sensitivity.
Clock behavior
The counter applies the annual average evenly from Jan. 1. It is an illustration using audited annual data, not a real-time PJM meter.
EIA · Virginia Electricity Profile 2024 ↗EIA · Table 10, supply & disposition ↗EIA SEDS · Virginia territorial power CO₂ ↗EPA · eGRID regional cross-check ↗EIA · Hourly grid and MRIO carbon method ↗Download · model inputs and limitations ↗Code of Virginia · § 56-585.5 ↗Virginia SCC · 2025 combined annual report ↗